US Open 2024 Odds: Early Lines and Predictions for Top Sleepers in the Field (2024)

A distinct skill set is required to get around Pinehurst with success during the US Open.

Golf Channel's Brandel Chamblee noted that the previous three US Open winners at Pinehurst were top 10 in driving accuracy, scrambling and total putts.

Few golfers outside of pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler rank high in all three of those categories going into the season's third major.

However, that is a good baseline to pick sleepers who are in or close to the top 10 in all of those categories on the PGA Tour.

Of course, that is not the only set of guidelines you should follow when betting the US Open, but that is a good place to start if you prefer to take a shot on a sleeper pick.

Tommy Fleetwood fits two of the Pinehurst statistical parameters.

The Englishman ranks third in driving accuracy and 10th in scrambling on the PGA Tour.

Fleetwood ranks 47th in total putting, so that is the outlier of the three statistics if you pick a winner solely on those parameters.

His recent results on the PGA Tour suggest he will be in the mix come Sunday.

Fleetwood finished inside the top 30 in six of his last seven starts. The best finish was a tie for third at The Masters.

Fleetwood finished inside the top 10 in three of his last four major starts and he has a trio of top-five placings at the US Open.

After Xander Schauffele's PGA Championship win, Fleetwood is up there with Viktor Hovland on the list of best golfers to never win a major.

The last five US Open champions have been first-time major winners, so that's a trend that plays in his favor.

Projection: Top 10 finish

Russell Henley is more of a traditional sleeper pick than Fleetwood.

The 35-year-old only has one top-10 major finish in his career, but he has been competitive in recent years at major tournaments.

Henley finished inside the top 15 at two of the last three US Opens and tied for fourth at the 2023 Masters. He does have two missed cuts in his last six major starts, but the high placings are promising.

Henley ranks high in the three statistical parameters Chamblee laid out as well. He ranks fifth in driving accuracy, 21st in scrambling and 13th in total putting.

The Georgia native has been inside the top 30 in each of his last four PGA Tour starts and he has experience playing Pinehurst as a major tournament course.

Henley tied for 60th at the 2014 US Open, but that result would have been much better if he did not shoot 82 in the third round. He shot 70 in the opening round and closed with a 71.

An outright bet at +8000 can be tough for anyone to justify, but you can get him to finish in the top 20 at +240 and at +130 to land inside the top 30.

Prediction: Top 20

Sepp Straka will be one of the more popular sleeper picks for the US Open.

The Austrian has been red hot on the PGA Tour with back-to-back top-five finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge and Memorial.

Straka has finished outside the top 20 twice in his last 10 starts, but one of those finishes was a missed cut at the PGA Championship.

Straka is second to Collin Morikawa in driving accuracy on the PGA Tour. He ranks in the top 60 in scrambling and total putts, but the key for him will be to keep the ball out of the rough.

Back-to-back missed cuts at the US Open could turn some bettors away from Straka, but he finished inside the top 20 at the last three majors where he made the cut.

Like Henley, Straka should be a target of finishing props. He is +250 to land inside the top 20 and +130 to finish in the top 30.

Prediction: Top 20

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