National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --552FXUS61 KGYX 090245AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME1045 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024.SYNOPSIS...Any isolated lingering showers end before midnight. Thereafterlow pressure is expected to bring rain to the region Sunday,especially in the morning and early afternoon. A few afternoonshowers are again likely on Monday and Tuesday. A cold frontlooks to move through either late Thursday or Friday withanother chance of showers and thunderstorms.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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1045 PM...Just a quick tune up to the grids based on currentobs, but forecast doesn;t change very much with any showersthrough much of the night limited to areas near the intl border.Otherwise seeing high clouds moving in from the W from theapproaching next system, but any radar returns associated withthis are not reaching the ground.755 PM...Timing and reduction of POPs thru the evening were themain focus of this updates. For the most a few scattered showersremain over the N and E zones, but these are isolated, and theoverall trend should be downward over the next couple hours.They`re still convective, so a brief downpour is not out of thequestion, but don`t expect any lightning. It`ll clear out orstay clear outside the mtns through the middle of the night,before clouds in advance of the next system start moving induring the pre-dawn hours, with some showers breaking out aroundday break in NH and around or shortly after sunrise in W ME.Numerous convective showers and scattered thunderstorms thisSaturday afternoon will wane early this evening as we losedaytime heating. However, until then heavy showers and a fewthunderstorms will produce downpours and small hail.Skies will at least partially clear tonight before cloudsincrease late. Thinking the fog threat will be less as theboundary layer should be drier and better mixed.Low pressure developing near NYC late tonight will begin tospread rain over southern NH late.
-- End Changed Discussion --&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...Yet another trough will cross the region on Sunday. This onewill move just to our south aiding in the formation of SFC lowpressure to our south that will move eastward through themorning hours into the afternoon. A steady rain will be thelikely result, especially for the southern half of NH andsouthernmost ME during the morning and early afternoon. Up to ahalf inch of rain is expected. Northern areas will likely seemore convective showers in the afternoon. Lowered high temps dueto the expected rainfall.Clearing skies will areas of fog Sunday night.&&.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Overview: Unsettled conditions continue through Monday whileupper low pulls north of the region. Broad high pressureadvances east mid-week, with drier conditions forecast. Anotherlow pressure system may bring additional damp weather for lateweek.Details: Center of low pressure will be pulling just north ofthe Maine/New Brunswick border during the day Monday. Due to thebroad nature of it, much of the area will still be cloudy withsome scattered showers. These may wait until mid to lateafternoon to fire as daytime heating should provide the fuelhere. Current guidance has very weak instability through theafternoon, so cut back on some PoPs that were advertised on theNBM. The flow offshore is SW, while land flow is more WNW, sothere may be more in the way of convergence towards the coastlate in the day to get some showers started. These ultimatelysubside shortly after sunset.High pressure slides east into Tuesday with mostly dryconditions forecast. There will be another chance of somediurnal showers in the afternoon, but moisture is limited. Someof these may be focused across the mountains where there isanother forcing agent in terrain.Wednesday looks similar to Tuesday in the way of afternoonshowers. This time comes with more southerly flow to aid inmoisture transport. The higher rain chances this week comeThursday into the first half of the weekend. Low pressure skirtsnorth of the Great Lakes potentially bringing a warm sector andcold front through the CWA. This combination of moisture andlift will bring chance of some thunderstorms, but it is tooearly for specifics on intensity/coverage.&&.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Short Term...Any MVFR conditions will improve to VFR tonight asa drier westerly flow enters the region. There should be lessfog tonight as in previous nights with a drier airmass andbetter mixing in place. However, MVFR to IFR conditions areexpected to enter the region Sunday morning as rain moves acrossthe region. Improvement is foreseen Sunday afternoon and night.Long Term...Ceiling restrictions are possible across far westernME and northern NH Monday and overnight. There may be some fogover the coastal waters that nears coastal terminal like PWM orRKD Tues/Wed.&&.MARINE...Short Term...Conditions hazardous to small craft are notexpected tonight. However, a few gusts around 25 kt arepossible Sunday as low pressure passes just to the east.Long Term...Below SCA criteria. Upper low pressure finally pullsnorth early this week, with high pressure approaching after.Surface low pressure passes to the south of the waters midweek.Additional frontal systems may move across the waters towardslate week.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...None.&&$$SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...Cempa/EksterSHORT TERM...EksterLONG TERM...CornwellAVIATION...MARINE...